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| SOME PROOF OF THE PUDDING |
My book, Harmonic Elliott, Wave provides many examples of the accuracy of the forecasts that can be made with the harmonic structure. Here I shall post
forecasts I have successfully made to provide greater evidence to back up my claims for the modification to Elliott's original structure.
I made the following calls on the business networking site LinkedIn in various threads.
These cover two markets; the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the cash gold market:
forecasts I have successfully made to provide greater evidence to back up my claims for the modification to Elliott's original structure.
I made the following calls on the business networking site LinkedIn in various threads.
These cover two markets; the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the cash gold market:
| Please click on chart to enlarge |
This discussion concerned the rather deep pullback from the 11,258 high which had approached a 15% drop and had been swinging around the 200 day
moving average. I certainly take no notice of moving averages of whatever length as they provide no predictive powers whatsoever. Indeed, there was a
mixture of opinions on this, some bearish and some modestly bullish. In the harmonic structure the 11,258 high was Wave (a) of Wave (iii) higher. The
decline had just dipped a little below the 50% retracement. My comment was made around the third bar in the rally. Most wanted more confirmation as
price hadn't really cleared above the 200 day moving average. A break above the last swing high, the third Wave x would confirm a break of the lower highs.
At this stage I was looking for a Wave -i- of Wave (c) of Wave (iii).
moving average. I certainly take no notice of moving averages of whatever length as they provide no predictive powers whatsoever. Indeed, there was a
mixture of opinions on this, some bearish and some modestly bullish. In the harmonic structure the 11,258 high was Wave (a) of Wave (iii) higher. The
decline had just dipped a little below the 50% retracement. My comment was made around the third bar in the rally. Most wanted more confirmation as
price hadn't really cleared above the 200 day moving average. A break above the last swing high, the third Wave x would confirm a break of the lower highs.
At this stage I was looking for a Wave -i- of Wave (c) of Wave (iii).
| Please click on chart to enlarge |
This call was made half way through the correction, following the first Wave x and subsequent Wave b. As can be seen price dipped down to the 9,936
level and recovered. In another thread traders were discussing the Hindenburg Omen, a combination of technical factors that attempt to measure the
health of the NYSE, and by extension, the stock market as a whole. The goal of the indicator is to signal increased probability of a stock market crash. This
had caused quite a number of traders to become exceptionally bearish. Price rallied strongly from that point, this expected to be Wave -a- of Wave -iii- that
had potential to rally close to, or around the old 11,258 high.
level and recovered. In another thread traders were discussing the Hindenburg Omen, a combination of technical factors that attempt to measure the
health of the NYSE, and by extension, the stock market as a whole. The goal of the indicator is to signal increased probability of a stock market crash. This
had caused quite a number of traders to become exceptionally bearish. Price rallied strongly from that point, this expected to be Wave -a- of Wave -iii- that
had potential to rally close to, or around the old 11,258 high.
| Please click on chart to enlarge |
Price rallied from the 9,936 low and developed in the anticipated 5-wave structure with an extended Wave [iii] (but still in 3-waves) to reach the area just
below the 11,258 high at around 11,159 as identified in a later posting. Momentum was displaying a bearish divergence that reinforced the call for an end
of Wave -a-. Being a Wave -b- there is a degree of uncertainty over how deep this can develop but the area around the Wave [b] of Wave [v] and also the
Wave [iv] is a high risk area, matching with the 41.4% retracement. Once this Wave -b- is complete it should rally to the 11,900 area approximately in Wave
-iii- of Wave (c) and finally towards the daily Wave (iii) target around 12,600 or just above.
below the 11,258 high at around 11,159 as identified in a later posting. Momentum was displaying a bearish divergence that reinforced the call for an end
of Wave -a-. Being a Wave -b- there is a degree of uncertainty over how deep this can develop but the area around the Wave [b] of Wave [v] and also the
Wave [iv] is a high risk area, matching with the 41.4% retracement. Once this Wave -b- is complete it should rally to the 11,900 area approximately in Wave
-iii- of Wave (c) and finally towards the daily Wave (iii) target around 12,600 or just above.
| Please click on chart to enlarge |
I made this comment to a thread that was calling for an excessive decline in gold. Many Elliotticians were bearish and had been for some while, including
Robert Prechter but under the harmonic wave count the 1,265 high was merely Wave (a) of an intermediate Wave (v). A 50% retracement in Wave (b)
suggested support around 1,154.60 while a projection in the decline implied a target around 1,158. Price bounced perfectly from the mid point of the two
at 1,156.70 with momentum displaying a bullish divergence. The initial barrier of 1,200 was implied by the final Wave -b- in the. Once this was penetrated
price rallied persistently. The long term target in Wave (v) rests at 1,390-1,395 and this would require a 5-wave rally to eventually reach this target.
Robert Prechter but under the harmonic wave count the 1,265 high was merely Wave (a) of an intermediate Wave (v). A 50% retracement in Wave (b)
suggested support around 1,154.60 while a projection in the decline implied a target around 1,158. Price bounced perfectly from the mid point of the two
at 1,156.70 with momentum displaying a bullish divergence. The initial barrier of 1,200 was implied by the final Wave -b- in the. Once this was penetrated
price rallied persistently. The long term target in Wave (v) rests at 1,390-1,395 and this would require a 5-wave rally to eventually reach this target.
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| Please click on chart to enlarge |
Price rallied pretty much in a straight line higher to reach 1,386.97 and corrected lower. From the look of the rally and the lack of any substantial correction
that would be expected in alternation this high does not actually look like the final high. In fact the high was just short of a 223.6% projection of Wave -i-
and therefore suggests that the 50% retracement at 1,298.45 should hold any losses and then generate follow-through in Wave -v-...
that would be expected in alternation this high does not actually look like the final high. In fact the high was just short of a 223.6% projection of Wave -i-
and therefore suggests that the 50% retracement at 1,298.45 should hold any losses and then generate follow-through in Wave -v-...
| Please click on chart to enlarge |
A few days before the 1344.50 high I published on Twitter the expected high for the S&P 500 Index at almost exactly the right level. As price declined it was
clear that the decline would not quite make the 120 point target drop and on the day of the low I published once again suggesting that the low should
develop. The low stalled a little above the 1,245 upper target band and has recovered. (Note times are in Japanese Standard Time.)
clear that the decline would not quite make the 120 point target drop and on the day of the low I published once again suggesting that the low should
develop. The low stalled a little above the 1,245 upper target band and has recovered. (Note times are in Japanese Standard Time.)
| Please click on chart to enlarge |
Being challenged on a Forex forum to prove that the modifications I have made actually work I called a high at 1.3640 - though this was not published.
Early on the Monday morning it reached 1.3640 and I published on Twitter that we should see a decline to 1.3541. This low stalled at 1.3540.
Subsequently I published again for price to rally back towards 1.3700-05... This time it fell short at 1.3685...
Early on the Monday morning it reached 1.3640 and I published on Twitter that we should see a decline to 1.3541. This low stalled at 1.3540.
Subsequently I published again for price to rally back towards 1.3700-05... This time it fell short at 1.3685...